Covid-19 in India likely to end in Mid-September, predicts Ministry Of Health's officials

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With the number of covid-19 cases reaching a new high and unlocking 1.0 begins in India, Senior officials of Ministry of Health predict that the coronvirus pandemic in India may go in Mid-September this year.

Dr.Anil Kumar, Deputy Director General (Public Health), Directorate General of Health Services of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has recently published an article in Epidemiology International Journal, along with co-author and Deputy assistant DG of health services, Rupali Roy in which they laid down a prediction that the pandemic would be over and the virus would leave India in mid-september. Their prediction is based on Bailey's Model where Relative Removal Rate (BMRRR) is observed for reaching a conclusion.

Bailey's Model is based on Relative Removal Rate which means how many cases are entering the pool and how many are going out. According to this model, when the number of infected is equal to the number of removed patients, the coefficient will reach 100% threshold. Only then, the pandemic would be over. In this model the removal rate is calculated which is the percentage of removed persons in the infected population. A regression analysis has been performed to show the linear relationship between the total infection rate and the total recovery rate.

A study was conducted on May 19th, keeping in mind the model's application and framework, the percantage was 42, but now it is around 50% and by the middle of September, it will be 100%.
According to this mathematical calculation, taking the rate to a higher level is a reflection of moving forward in the right direction. Mathematical models are not absolute and it depends upon the quality of data available.

All states are having different policies in reporting the number of cases. Some are providing data of only severe cases, while some are reporting both severe and mild cases.

Highlighting the importance of Lockdown and how the same could have yielded better results, Dr.Anjl Kumar said -"We could not achieve what we could have. However the idea of lockdown was very good, but due to various reasons, it was not so effective. Lockdown is more of an administrative decision, but the real measure needs to be taken at the community level otherwise, we can not get the benefit of it." On further being asked about the percantage of population that might get infected, - 'It depends upon so many factors such as, from now on, how people are going to maintain distancing and how public health measures will be taken in future',he added.